SPOTY Countdown - into the final month

With just a month to go before the Sports Personality of the Year programme, I thought it was about time I wrote an update on my article from last September.

At the time, the odds available made it look like a five-horse race. I gave reasons why I thought three of them (Button, Murray and Strauss) were unlikely to win, and argued that there should be only two favourites (Ennis and Flintoff). I went on to suggest one other possibility, who at the time was very much a long shot – David Haye.

Here’s how the odds have moved since then:
Best Prices……………Sept 9…Nov 10
Jenson Button……………9/4………4/5
Jessica Ennis……………5/2………5/1
David Haye………………50/1……7/1
Andrew Strauss…………11/1……20/1
Andrew Flintoff…………8/1……84/1
Andy Murray………………4/1……100/1
Bar……………………………41/1……79/1

As you can see, according to the current odds the five-horse race is now down to three. Button tightened when he won the Drivers’ Championship, and Ennis and the two cricketers all lengthened in response. Haye quickly came in to 7/1 when he beat Valuev.

With no major sporting events left between now and the shortlist announcement on 30th November, I still haven’t quite given up hope for Freddie – it all depends on whether the BBC decide to rekindle the Ashes – but the likely contenders appear to be the top three – Button, Ennis and Haye.

Since last Saturday I’ve been very impressed by Haye – not only did David beat Goliath, he’s also managed to appear friendly, modest and likeable, and he's done so on pretty much every TV and radio programme going. If he keeps this up, his odds will surely shorten from the current 7/1. Hills and Shadsy already have him in at 4/1, and I think even this will shorten considerably.

I topped-up on Haye in the run-up to the Valuev fight. He was odds-on to beat Valuev, so I simply couldn’t see why he should be as long as 40/1 for the SPOTY. I see him as a more likely winner than Button – Haye is likeable, he’s willing to put himself about, his triumph is fresher in the memory, and if Calzaghe could win the 2007 SPOTY, a higher-profile boxer like Haye must surely have an excellent chance this time.

Feel free to add your comments – especially if you can persuade me to put a saver on Button!

All the best,

Robert Barnes
www.AscotBusinessTraining.com