Is there a Poll out tonight?

Back in 1992, John Major’s led a Government with a c20 seat majority. But the cumulative majority of those 20 seats was just 2000 votes.

Two Thousand votes in the right places out of 45 million cast determined the fate of the Government. Of course, you can never predict such narrow margins, which is why we were all probably nuts to even try to predict seat numbers.

The narrowness of the majorities in the top 50 seats means that, despite polling 2,207,400 votes more than Labour and 3,980,917 votes more than the LibDems, on Thursday night the Tories [10,808,749 votes] just missed-out by a whisker. 10,000 votes in the right place would have swung-it for them.

Just 1000 votes in the right place take us to seat 11 - Solihull
Just 2000 votes in the right place take us to seat 16 - Mid Dorset & Poole
Just 5000 votes in the right place take us to seat 24 - Swansea West
Just 10000 votes in the right place take us to seat 33 - Great Grimsby
Just 20000 votes in the right place take us to seat 44 - Morely & Attwood
Just 50000 votes in the right place take us to seat 65 - Newport East

But the battleground ahead will be more complicated than that. Each party will have its targets to win and targets to defend. So, I've created four tables - one for all parties and one-each for the main-parties showing their top-50 marginal seats. This is the4 list the party strategists will be looking at and deciding whether to fight [another party] or defend their own.

And one interesting fact to emerge from this analysis is that Ed Balls' seat is unique in that it turns out that he is the only one in the list to have been fought under the Lab-CoOp banner rather than The Labour Party. There were 16 of these Morley and Outwood; Luton South; Harrow West; Feltham and Heston; Cardiff South and Penarth; Barrow and Furness; Liverpool Wavertree; Nottingham East; Ilford South; Preston; Edmonton; Kilmarnock and Loudoun; Islwyn; Rutherglen and Hamilton West; Glasgow South West; Liverpool West Derby. Does this give us a hint of the Union influence to come?

Here's a link to the Raw Data


Top 50 Marginal Seats - all Parties

Order Seat Total Of CalcMajority Alliance
1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone 5 SF
2 Hampstead and Kilburn 42 LAB
3 Warwickshire North 52 CON
4 Camborne and Redruth 68 CON
5 Bolton West 90 LAB
6 Thurrock 92 CON
7 Oldham East and Saddleworth 102 LAB
8 Hendon 107 CON
9 Sheffield Central 166 LAB
10 Oxford West and Abingdon 175 CON
11 Solihull 176 LIBDEM
12 Southampton Itchen 191 LAB
13 Ashfield 193 LAB
14 Cardiff North 195 CON
15 Sherwood 215 CON
16 Dorset Mid and Poole North 267 LIBDEM
17 Norwich South 309 LIBDEM
18 Edinburgh South 315 LAB
19 Stockton South 332 CON
20 Lancaster and Fleetwood 333 CON
21 Bradford East 364 LIBDEM
22 Broxtowe 390 CON
23 Truro and Falmouth 434 CON
24 Swansea West 505 LAB
25 Newton Abbot 521 CON
26 Wirral South 531 LAB
27 Amber Valley 538 CON
28 Chesterfield 550 LAB
29 Derby North 613 LAB
30 Hull North 643 LAB
31 Dudley North 649 LAB
32 Wolverhampton South West 691 CON
33 Great Grimsby 715 LAB
34 Waveney 767 CON
35 Wells 799 LIBDEM
36 Carlisle 852 CON
37 Morecambe and Lunesdale 868 CON
38 Rochdale 891 LAB
39 Telford 979 LAB
40 Weaver Vale 990 CON
41 Walsall North 992 LAB
42 Harrogate and Knaresborough 1041 CON
43 Lincoln 1056 CON
44 Morley and Outwood 1099 LAB-COOP
45 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 1150 CON
46 Montgomeryshire 1183 CON
47 Antrim South 1184 DUP
48 Brighton Pavilion 1254 GRN
49 Birmingham Edgbaston 1272 LAB
50 Stroud 1299 CON

Top 50 CONSERVATIVE Marginal Seats to Defend

Order Seat Total Of CalcMajority C Majority%
1 Warwickshire North 52 0.11
2 Camborne and Redruth 68 0.16
3 Thurrock 92 0.2
4 Hendon 107 0.23
5 Oxford West and Abingdon 175 0.31
6 Cardiff North 195 0.41
7 Sherwood 215 0.44
8 Stockton South 332 0.66
9 Lancaster and Fleetwood 333 0.78
10 Broxtowe 390 0.74
11 Truro and Falmouth 434 0.89
12 Newton Abbot 521 1.08
13 Amber Valley 538 1.17
14 Wolverhampton South West 691 1.72
15 Waveney 767 1.5
16 Carlisle 852 2.02
17 Morecambe and Lunesdale 868 1.99
18 Weaver Vale 990 2.25
19 Harrogate and Knaresborough 1041 1.96
20 Lincoln 1056 2.31
21 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 1150 2.62
22 Montgomeryshire 1183 3.5
23 Stroud 1299 2.24
24 Brighton Kemptown 1328 3.11
25 Bedford 1353 3
26 Watford 1424 2.58
27 Dewsbury 1528 2.83
28 Warrington South 1553 2.83
29 Pudsey 1659 3.38
30 Enfield North 1694 3.81
31 Hove 1868 3.75
32 Corby 1893 3.49
33 Northampton North 1937 4.81
34 Brentford and Isleworth 1957 3.64
35 Hastings and Rye 1993 4
36 Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2023 4.6
37 Nuneaton 2067 4.63
38 Ipswich 2079 4.43
39 Blackpool North and Cleveleys 2151 5.3
40 Aberconwy 2181 11.34
41 Bury North 2244 4.99
42 St Albans 2304 4.36
43 Gloucester 2421 4.77
44 Wirral West 2437 6.19
45 Kingswood 2443 5.1
46 Hereford and Herefordshire South 2482 5.13
47 Erewash 2501 5.25
48 Chester, City of 2583 5.52
49 Wyre Forest 2642 5.19
50 Weston-Super-Mare 2689 5.1

Top 50 LABOUR Marginal Seats to Defend

Order Seat Total Of CalcMajority Lab Majority%
1 Hampstead and Kilburn 42 0.08
2 Bolton West 90 0.19
3 Oldham East and Saddleworth 102 0.23
4 Sheffield Central 166 0.4
5 Southampton Itchen 191 0.43
6 Ashfield 193 0.4
7 Edinburgh South 315 0.72
8 Swansea West 505 1.42
9 Wirral South 531 1.33
10 Chesterfield 550 1.2
11 Derby North 613 1.36
12 Hull North 643 1.93
13 Dudley North 649 1.68
14 Great Grimsby 715 2.17
15 Rochdale 891 1.94
16 Telford 979 2.37
17 Walsall North 992 2.74
18 Birmingham Edgbaston 1272 3.06
19 Halifax 1472 3.38
20 Newcastle-under-Lyme 1551 3.59
21 Plymouth Moor View 1586 3.82
22 Wakefield 1613 3.63
23 Newport East 1650 4.79
24 Eltham 1662 3.96
25 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East 1678 3.63
26 Edinburgh North and Leith 1724 3.64
27 Walsall South 1754 4.29
28 Nottingham South 1770 4.34
29 Blackpool South 1851 5.26
30 Gedling 1860 3.86
31 Westminster North 2126 5.37
32 Bridgend 2262 5.9
33 Delyn 2271 6.14
34 Southampton Test 2413 5.46
35 Derbyshire North East 2446 5.2
36 Ynys Mon 2459 7.14
37 Wolverhampton North East 2484 7.12
38 Vale of Clwyd 2509 7.06
39 Tooting 2523 4.98
40 Scunthorpe 2548 6.88
41 Chorley 2593 5.21
42 Dagenham and Rainham 2632 5.95
43 Gower 2684 6.44
44 Exeter 2722 5.21
45 Stalybridge and Hyde 2743 6.71
46 Birmingham Northfield 2781 6.65
47 Pontypridd 2783 7.59
48 Clwyd South 2833 8.17
49 Alyn and Deeside 2918 7.31
50 Penistone and Stocksbridge 3047 6.55

Top 50 LIBDEM Seats to Defend

Seat Total Of CalcMajority LD Majority %
1 Solihull 176 0.32
2 Dorset Mid and Poole North 267 0.57
3 Norwich South 309 0.65
4 Bradford East 364 0.9
5 Wells 799 1.43
6 St Austell and Newquay 1313 2.78
7 Brent Central 1346 2.97
8 Sutton and Cheam 1606 3.31
9 St Ives 1717 3.74
10 Burnley 1816 4.34
11 Somerton and Frome 1818 3
12 Manchester Withington 1896 4.21
13 Dunbartonshire East 2182 4.55
14 Chippenham 2473 4.72
15 Berwick-upon-Tweed 2691 7
16 Cornwall North 2979 6.36
17 Birmingham Yardley 3002 7.35
18 Cheadle 3271 6.23
19 Argyll and Bute 3431 7.59
20 Eastbourne 3435 6.59
21 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3683 8.15
22 Brecon and Radnorshire 3749 9.65
23 Edinburgh West 3804 8.19
24 Eastleigh 3863 7.2
25 Taunton Deane 3995 6.87
26 Torbay 4080 8.29
27 Cardiff Central 4577 12.66
28 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 4827 16.78
29 Cheltenham 4920 9.32
30 Portsmouth South 5199 12.6
31 Redcar 5216 12.43
32 Carshalton and Wallington 5262 11.46
33 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 5676 11.58
34 Devon North 5820 11.34
35 Southport 6025 13.77
36 Hazel Grove 6373 15.18
37 Gordon 6746 13.83
38 Cambridge 6793 13.55
39 Hornsey and Wood Green 6875 12.49
40 Colchester 6981 15.13
41 Thornbury and Yate 7118 14.76
42 Kingston and Surbiton 7561 13.24
43 Lewes 7648 15.27
44 Ceredigion 8325 21.76
45 Bermondsey and Old Southwark 8528 19.1
46 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 8763 18.61
47 Fife North East 9046 22.58
48 Leeds North West 9101 20.93
49 Orkney and Shetland 9928 51.32
50 Bristol West 11368 20.54