Saturday, 24 July 2010

Hockenheim: pre-race

That was immensely frustrating. Alonso came second by 0.002s. On the plus side, my evens lay did get matched, so if you set one up you should be no worse off. That’s damned irritating.

Alonso and Vettel are in a league of their own here. Massa’s third, closely followed by Webber, with row three made up of Button and Hamilton.

The weather forecast is for a dry race.

I’m not backing either of the favourites for the win. Vettel’s evens and Alonso’s 3, but given the high unpredictability of F1 I don’t fancy either at those odds, despite the fact that they’re streets ahead of the field.

The latter half of the track is very narrow, and I imagine overtaking opportunities there will be very limited. Turn 6 (the hairpin) is the place where I suspect most passing will occur. I think this could be to the advantage of the McLarens. They won’t be passed in sector 3, where they’re relatively slow, because it’s narrow, but will be able to pass people in turn 6. Well, that’s my guess, anyway.

Given the McLarens are more reliable than the Red Bulls and have better race than qualifying pace, I’m going to back Button at 3.9 to get a podium. There’s limited liquidity, so I’d take 3.5 or above.

Gutted the Alonso tip was so close but didn’t come off.

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

The Alonso tip was a pretty good one, thanks.

By laying, I was able to make a small profit on it, which offset my losses on Webber.
Disappointing that he fluffed Q3 quite so badly. At the last minute, I got a few quid on him at something like 8/1 going in to Q3, and had he not put his rear wheel on the astroturf, he could have been somewhere close.

I wonder if Ferrari will have any engine reliability problems during the race, now that they have adopted the Red Bull style engine mapping in qualifying trim, as it stresses the engine a bit ?

Probably not, but worth watching out for.

Morris Dancer said...

I wish I'd laid a little more. I came out all square, but it was so close.... oh well.

I hope Ferrari and Red Bull have reliability issues, as that'd bolster Button's chances. Surprising to see him beat Hamilton, but there we are.

Peter from Putney said...

Betfair's odds this morning of 24.7/1, net of commission (aka 27), against Lewis Hamilton winning today's German GP from the third row appear extraordinarily generous - I'm on at this price for a pint of Old Speckled Hen.

Nigel said...

If I'd had a little cash on Massa, I'd be seriously pissed off at his being forced to pull over for his teammate.

That was a pretty unequivocal instruction to let Alonso through - aren't team orders illegal ?

Morris Dancer said...

Indeed they are.

I looked at Massa's price, and briefly considered it, but I thought he had almost no chance at all.

More info in the next piece, which will be up shortly.