Friday, 2 July 2010

Mid-season Review

We’re roughly halfway through the season, with nine races down and ten to go (yes, it’s a looong season). I thought that now might be a good time to have a look back, both at the season and the success/failure of various tips I’ve offered.

Firstly, the numbers. I’ve offered 33 race tips, of which 9 have proven accurate. However, that does equate to a profit at 5 races, and a loss at 4. Oddly, the last four races have been almost exact matches for one another in terms of profit/loss, as highlighted by the lovely graph I shall attempt to insert.

Sadly, despite recovering somewhat from the dire start and being on an upward trend, if you put a tenner on every bet, without laying, you would have made a loss. You would, in fact, be down £8.14, by my reckoning. On the other hand, if you backed all my tips you should have bloody well laid, and (happily) as I’m slightly ahead this should’ve turned the red number into a green one.

A mistake I felt I made early on was trying too hard to replicate my success at Monza last year, where I offered five or six tips, and most of them came in (including an 8.8 long shot on the winner). With some exceptions, I think 2-3 bets per weekend is probably more sensible.

At times I suffered bad luck (Vettel’s engine exploding inconveniently) but also benefited from good fortune (Button’s Turkish podium and Massa failing to escape Q1 in Malaysia) so I can’t complain about that.

I think that things are presently going ok, and for the next race (Silverstone) I’ll have my eye mostly on Alonso, but also paying attention to the to-be-updated McLarens and the Red Bulls, which love the circuit. If anyone has thoughts on how my regular articles could be improved, please feel free to make suggestions. [Incidentally, do people find the “I thought about bet X but decided against it” pieces I sometimes include annoying, or interesting?]

Now, a look back at the season itself. Red Bull have had the fastest car throughout, but has failed to capitalise due to (again) suffering the sort of reliability usually attributed to Frenchmen in a war. It must also be said that both Red Bull drivers have, shall we say, unique and challenging methods of overtaking, which often involve crashing.

By contrast, the McLaren was a clear step behind the Red Bull for the earlier races, but benefited from great drivers using their head (Button with great tyre calls) and raw pace (Hamilton) to keep in the running, aided by rock solid reliability and the excellent new points system.

Ferrari have, save for the very early stages, been behind their two rivals. Decent reliability has given them a basis to build on, but they’ll need a big edge or some luck to win.

Elsewhere, Mercedes has built their car from fire-hardened wood, with digestive biscuit brake discs and an engine powered by a small dog. Renault have done very well, moving clear of the mid-pack teams to overtake Mercedes. Be interesting to see if Kubica stays there.

I think momentum is definitely with McLaren, and if their new upgrade is as good as is being suggested they should keep it. Ferrari do seem to have finally woken up, but I suspect it’s too late (and may not be aided by Alonso being as stable as a one-legged drunk). If Red Bull could solve their reliability gremlins they’d be in a much better position.

So, even though we have aaaages to go yet, and this may look silly, I’m predicting the Constructors will finish thus:
Red Bull

I’m not going to predict the Drivers’, for reasons that are strange and mysterious and not at all because I find it very, very hard to call between all four top drivers (I doubt Alonso will be a serious player at the end).

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed reading this post, which is clearly a serious analytical review of the season and not an excuse for me to play with graphs.

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

As we're only half way through the season, why shouldn't Williams end up fifth, rather than Mercedes (who appear almost ready to abandon development of this season's car) ?

Otherwise, not much to argue with.

Morris Dancer said...

Possible, but not something I'd considered. It would be a shocker for Mercedes if they did finish sixth.

Nigel said...

On the subject of the McLaren upgrade, there were some interesting comments on the speedtv website:

' ..."Our rivals overestimate the benefits of the blown diffuser," he (Red Bull's Horner) is quoted as saying by Germany's Auto Motor und Sport.
"It's only about two or three tenths," added the Briton.
The team's German driver Sebastian Vettel agrees.
"It gives us a bit, but only together with the whole package, and that includes our rear suspension. That can't be copied during the season," he said.
The Auto Plus column of French commentator Jean-Louis Moncet reports that, as well as the blown diffuser, McLaren's Silverstone upgrade includes new cooling, suspension and dampers... '

Friday might be interesting.
I've put a bit of money on Button at 10/1 to win qualifying.

Thaddeus said...

Ugh. Had to log in to get this posted.

Anyway, Button doesn't tempt me for pole at 10. His record at the circuit is poor. Vettel's too short at 2.6. I'm more tempted by Hamilton at 4.8.