Monaco: pre-race

So close and yet so far. Kubica came very close, but was beaten, from nowhere, by Webber turning in a great effort. However, there was indeed ample laying opportunity (I got my lay at 1.5 matched).

Should’ve laid Vettel, but it’s not hard to be tip events that have already occurred.

The much spoken of traffic issues didn’t particularly emerge, and qualifying didn’t become exciting until the end, when the Aussie annoyingly knocked Kubica off pole.

So, how’s the race shaping up? First and foremost we have Alonso, who was excellent in P1 and P2 but made an error in P3 which wrecked his car for qualifying. Assuming it’s ready for the race he’ll start last, from the pit lane. Not brilliant, though it does give him more technical freedom.

At the front we have Webber and Kubica, followed by Vettel and Massa, who was pretty good in P3 and throughout qualifying and could prove a dark horse. Then we have Hamilton, Rosberg, Schumacher and Button. Barrichello defied poor practice to come in a good 9th.

As I said in the pre-qualifying post, Monaco is a very difficult place to try overtaking other cars. Rain is not expected, so that won’t throw a spanner into the works. Timing of stops will be critical, as will the start.

Struggled to find value because, like Spain, it’s rather a procession type circuit. I looked at a few possibilities, but the only one I’ve backed is Massa for a podium at 3. He starts 4th, he’s run well through much of the weekend and has had some good starts. Plus, if he stands still and either Red Bull explodes he’d come through.

Other ones I considered were laying Webber at 1.75 (decided against because his car seems bullet-proof compared to Vettel’s), backing Kubica to lead the first lap (if you fancy the Pole I’d consider this instead of the winner market because the odds are longer and if he doesn’t pass at the start he’s unlikely to win) and Massa to win at 27. I do think Massa could have a good start, hence my bet for him to score a podium, but he’d have to pass three chaps, and in the ultra-narrow confines of Monaco that’s unlikely. Also, although his season’s not been that good since the early races, Massa’s finished equal to or ahead of his qualifying position at every race save China.

Anyway, there we have. Disappointed not to see more value, but I suspect I have a tendency to look too hard and see what isn’t there. 3 for a chap to make a single pass at the start or for one of the cars ahead to breakdown is reasonable.

Morris Dancer

Monaco: pre-qualifying

And so to Monaco, best-known of the F1 tracks. It’s also quite quirky and distinct in a number of important ways. Believing that run-off areas are for girls, the circuit owners have made it almost entirely run-off free (I can think of one, off a corner, and another which cuts a corner and rejoins the race track). If you make a mistake, your car has a fight with a big metal barrier.

As well as near certain doom awaiting those who make such an error, it’s also very narrow and very difficult to overtake another car. Not to say it’s impossible, but it’s highly unlikely someone starting middle of the grid will do well. The circuit was also a real tyre-shredder last year, to the great advantage of Button, whose smooth driving style made it quite easy for him. Apparently the tyres stand up much better this time, and Button isn’t in the best car this race, but he may still do well.

Finally, in relative terms, the driver matters more and the car less at Monaco. Naturally, most top drivers have top cars. However, if a top class chap is in a slightly underperforming car then this is a good track for them. Kubica, Sutil and Barrichello (most especially Kubica) may have value.

In P1 Alonso topped the timesheets, followed by Vettel, Kubica, Webber, Massa, Schumacher, Hamilton and Button. Notable how far down the McLarens are and that Schumacher outpaced Rosberg, a feat he did not repeat in P2). Also interesting is Kubica’s 3rd in the Renault and Ferrari getting top slot.

P2 again saw Alonso fastest, followed by Rosberg, Vettel, Massa, Schumacher, Kubica, Hamilton and Sutil. Button was in 9th. On both occasions Schumacher and Kubica were faster than both McLarens and Alonso was fastest. Sutil came in the top 10 (9th and 8th respectively) both times as well.

In P3 Alonso crashed, and it’s unclear at the time of writing whether he’ll be out for qualifying and if he is whether he’ll have a serious chance. Button complained about lack of grip, and didn’t do so well, coming 10th. Kubica was fastest, then Massa, Webber, Hamilton, Vettel, Schumacher and Rosberg.

In the last moments of P3 we saw the type of traffic issue that may bedevil qualifying. I doubt this will affect Q1, because 7 cars drop out and the bottom 6 (HRT, Virgin and Lotus) are so much slower they’re almost certain to drop. The issue may play out in Q2, when there’ll be 17 cars on track, and traffic may cause some to drop out due to traffic.

For me, value most lies with Kubica at 9 for pole position. I’m also tempted to lay Vettel at 3. He’s not had a great record at Monaco, did well in P1 and P2 but poorly in P3. However, he’s too often defied practice sessions, traffic could play into events and I tend to dislike short odds, so I’m only going to bet on Kubica. There may well be ample opportunity to lay in the last 5 minutes of Q3 (which I brilliantly did last time to dilute my Webber winnings).

Will a Pole be on pole? Let’s hope so.

Morris Dancer

So, is this constituency size thing for real?

Updated 10th May 08:00
This is an updated post from the one I first published last night because it takes into account comments on the main site about re-working the data on total constituency size rather than total votes cast.


They say a day's a long time in politics. Well I'm just catching up on '24' on Sky whilst fiddling around with the turnout figures from 6th May 2010 General Election.

I just wanted to test whether it was really true that the Tory Constituencies are larger than the Labour ones.

We're being told that Labour Seats are about 8% smaller than Tory ones meaning that the value of a Labour-vote is, in aggregate, worth about 8% more than a Tory one.

If proved, that's clearly wrong and explains why a 7-point lead for the Tories denies them power whereas a 7-point lead for Labour gives them a comfortable majority.

These stories can grow with the telling so I fiddled around on Access and Excel to generate some crosstabs to test the relationship between total votes cast and the winning party.

The picture below speaks for itself. [click for a hi-res version]



And here's the Full Raw Data incl Minor Parties

And here's the link to the Full 2010 General election Results Spreadsheet derived from The Guardian's helpful tables. http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoeOvMl1L9fVdGRIVGxmb0dES3lWaVlfVWpmUzE1cEE&hl=en_GB

It's clear that the Tory seats really do have much higher votes cast. If all constituencies were of an equal size you'd see the red/blue/yellow bars all muddled up. But they aren't. The Tory Blue ones are clustered around the larger constituencies. And the Labour wins in the smaller ones.

But following publishing the post, WorriedVoter and others asked whether there would be a different result if I used the total electorate rather than votes cast to neutralise the effect of differential turnout. I didn't have the total electorate size but WorriedVoter explained it could be calculated from the Total Votes and %Turnout figures, which I did have. Doh! Why didn't I think of that.

If you have the figure for total votes cast and the turnout in each constituency then you can compute the constituency size. Can you not do this and then put the results through your crosstab again to see if a different picture emerges?
by Worried Voter May 9th, 2010 at 11:14 pm

In truth the picture isn't quite so clear and that's because it looks like turnout was higher in the seats that voted Tory but it's still significant and you can see visually that Tory MPs are disproportionately returned in the larger constituencies and Labour MPs in the smaller ones, inferring that it's easier to elect a Labour member with fewer votes.. There's no clear pattern for the LibDems, which are evenly distributed.
So, when you consider the effect of total-votes-cast in a constituency, the Tories are clearly clustered in those constituencies with larger turnout. When you consider the total electorate, the picture isn't quite so clear but still shows a preponderance of Tory seats in the larger constituencies and Labour in the smaller ones. There doesn't seem to be a pattern with the LibDems, which indicates that constituency size isn't as important, which in turn suggests that they have nothing to fear from constituency equalisation.

But whatever you feel about this analysis, it has to be right in a democracy that each vote carries equal weight. That isn't the case at the moment and that's something that has to be fixed.

Bunnco - Your Man on The Spot

Spain: post-race analysis

Bugger. After a good qualifying, the race was dire. In entertainment terms, it was rubbish until the last few laps when there were a few interesting bits (Hamilton getting yet another puncture, Vettel coming third despite having no brakes). Betting-wise, all bad. Annoying that, as forecast, a Red Bull had a reliability problem, but it was late enough in the race that Vettel got away with it.

Although it’s galling to miss out on an all-green weekend so narrowly, it is at least a reasonable sign that my thinking was on decent lines.

The title race remains very close. My early season view backing Massa looks more and more wrong (although he did seem to benefit from breaking his front wing). Button remains in a good position, (backed him at 14 or so, and tipped at 8).

Red Bull clearly have the fastest car, and Vettel is the best driver on the grid, yet neither team nor driver tops a table. For the Constructors, McLaren lead on 119, followed by Ferrari on 116 and Red Bull on 113. Button’s still top of the driver standings at 70, with Alonso on 67, Vettel on 60 and Webber on 53.

Hamilton’s at 7. He is in the running, but has been outraced by Button and suffered some bad luck. I think he’s too short. Vettel is 2.64. He should be favourite, but I think that’s too short, given his dire luck. Fastest car though. Alonso’s also too short on 3.85. The Ferrari just isn’t quick enough. Yes, he got second today, but that was because Hamilton’s car exploded and Vettel drove 6 laps without brakes. For me, Button and Webber are too long (9.6 and 10) respectively. I’ve already backed Button, so won’t again, but I may well put a little on Webber. He’s a competent but not spectacular driver, but the Red Bull is absolutely brilliant. He also has good (or just normal) luck, unlike team-mate Vettel who seems cursed (bit like Raikonnen at McLaren).

Next week, the sport goes to Monaco. The circuit is unique. Very, very narrow, shreds tyres like nowhere else and has almost no run off areas. Qualifying may see an upset, simply due to traffic obstructing frontrunners. For those who watch practice, the first two sessions are on Thursday, as usual for Monaco. Hopefully I’ll manage to tip winners in both qualifying and practice next time.

Morris Dancer

Spain: pre-race

Surprised but pleased the Webber tip came off. A nice start to the Spanish race weekend.

As expected, Red Bull locked out the front row of the grid, followed by Hamilton, Alonso, Button and Schumacher.

Apparently Spain tends towards processions, suggesting the race may be more like Bahrain than the other, far more exciting and unpredictable, races this season.

According to Wunderground there’s a 20% chance of trace amounts of rain, Weather-forecast.com has rain showers in the afternoon and the BBC is forecasting light showers. So, a small amount of rain is possible but not likely.

Over the last few years 6, 8 and 9 cars respectively have failed to finish the Spanish Grand Prix. This race also has the 6 newbie team cars, including one with a fuel tank too small to allow it to finish the race. This is handy info both when considering a classified bet, and as something to factor into other bets. Barcelona is a car-breaker of a circuit.

So, that’s the picture. A processional, dry circuit that has a tendency to break cars. No refuelling removes that strategic aspect, but one or two do remain. The start will be crucial. This season we’ve seen Vettel pass Webber to go first and the rivalry betwixt the two Red Bull drivers must be fierce. Also, Hamilton is in third in the car with the fastest straight line speed. In addition, a restart due to a safety car could well occur. It seems that the start proper and possible restarts may present the best opportunities for drama and passing.

This makes Red Bull a difficult call. Their car is clearly faster than all others, but it did prove rather unreliable in the previous races, and Spain, as stated above, does have a habit of wrecking cars.

So, I’ve opted for some unusual markets I don’t often consider. I’ve laid both Vettel and Webber to be classified, at 1.19 and 1.21 respectively. Their cars are amongst the least reliable, and they’re too fast not to get podiums, so I went for the lower odds of classification.

I’ve also backed the appearance of a safety car at 2.24. The track’s narrow and with the odds on a fair number of cars not finishing due to accident or breakdown there’s a reasonable chance of a safety car. If you lay the Red Bulls with half the stake you back the safety car you’ll be green if any one bet comes off.

Let’s hope Webber and Vettel collide in the first few laps, necessitating a safety car.

Morris Dancer

Spain: pre-qualifying

Well, it’s been a long three weeks, during which we’ve seen volcanic disruption of British airspace, the first Hung Parliament since before I was born and a long time for car development for every F1 team.

Spain is a circuit which should be Red Bull’s. The biggest challenge to the likes of Vettel and Webber has come from the McLarens, but the McLaren’s big strength is great straight line speed. Unfortunately for Hamilton and Button, Spain has just one straight, unlike previous races where there were two close together in Malaysia and a couple in the circuit in China.

We’ll see whether developments have meant an improvement for the other teams, or whether Red Bull’s only real problem remains the fact that Vettel’s car explodes every time he’s due to make 25 points.

Practice 1 saw a McLaren one two in the 1:21s, with Schumacher closely behind Button in third. He was followed by Webber, Vettel, Rosberg, Kubica and Alonso.

Practice 2 had the Red Bulls topping the timesheets, Vettel first, but Schumacher managed to come third again (albeit half a second behind Webber). It’s only practice, but it is a clear improvement. The German seems happy with the new wheelbase and chassis, whereas Rosberg seems less pleased. Alonso came 4th, followed by Hamilton, Kubica, Rosberg, Massa and Button.

Spain tends to be a procession in the dry. But will the qualifying be dry?

The BBC reckons it’ll have light showers, Wunderground’s hourly forecast reckons it’ll be dry and clear and weather-forecast.com has it dry and clear.

So, it seems likely to be dry. The Red Bulls seem a street ahead of their rivals. Vettel’s P3 time was fastest, and 0.7s ahead of Webber, but that may be due to fuel/Webber not completing his final lap due to yellow flags. Hamilton and Button were close behind and Schumacher was 5th, followed by Massa, Rosberg and Alonso.

Vettel’s 1.59, but I’m unconvinced of the value there. Webber’s longer, and I think worth backing for pole position at 5.5 or more. Traffic issues, precise timing of the final lap and luck mean that although Vettel is right to be favourite, Webber’s got a reasonable chance of snagging pole. I doubt anyone else will do it because the Red Bull is just too fast.

I’m keeping these pre-qualifying posts under review.

Morris Dancer

Is there a Poll out tonight?

Back in 1992, John Major’s led a Government with a c20 seat majority. But the cumulative majority of those 20 seats was just 2000 votes.

Two Thousand votes in the right places out of 45 million cast determined the fate of the Government. Of course, you can never predict such narrow margins, which is why we were all probably nuts to even try to predict seat numbers.

The narrowness of the majorities in the top 50 seats means that, despite polling 2,207,400 votes more than Labour and 3,980,917 votes more than the LibDems, on Thursday night the Tories [10,808,749 votes] just missed-out by a whisker. 10,000 votes in the right place would have swung-it for them.

Just 1000 votes in the right place take us to seat 11 - Solihull
Just 2000 votes in the right place take us to seat 16 - Mid Dorset & Poole
Just 5000 votes in the right place take us to seat 24 - Swansea West
Just 10000 votes in the right place take us to seat 33 - Great Grimsby
Just 20000 votes in the right place take us to seat 44 - Morely & Attwood
Just 50000 votes in the right place take us to seat 65 - Newport East

But the battleground ahead will be more complicated than that. Each party will have its targets to win and targets to defend. So, I've created four tables - one for all parties and one-each for the main-parties showing their top-50 marginal seats. This is the4 list the party strategists will be looking at and deciding whether to fight [another party] or defend their own.

And one interesting fact to emerge from this analysis is that Ed Balls' seat is unique in that it turns out that he is the only one in the list to have been fought under the Lab-CoOp banner rather than The Labour Party. There were 16 of these Morley and Outwood; Luton South; Harrow West; Feltham and Heston; Cardiff South and Penarth; Barrow and Furness; Liverpool Wavertree; Nottingham East; Ilford South; Preston; Edmonton; Kilmarnock and Loudoun; Islwyn; Rutherglen and Hamilton West; Glasgow South West; Liverpool West Derby. Does this give us a hint of the Union influence to come?

Here's a link to the Raw Data


Top 50 Marginal Seats - all Parties

Order Seat Total Of CalcMajority Alliance
1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone 5 SF
2 Hampstead and Kilburn 42 LAB
3 Warwickshire North 52 CON
4 Camborne and Redruth 68 CON
5 Bolton West 90 LAB
6 Thurrock 92 CON
7 Oldham East and Saddleworth 102 LAB
8 Hendon 107 CON
9 Sheffield Central 166 LAB
10 Oxford West and Abingdon 175 CON
11 Solihull 176 LIBDEM
12 Southampton Itchen 191 LAB
13 Ashfield 193 LAB
14 Cardiff North 195 CON
15 Sherwood 215 CON
16 Dorset Mid and Poole North 267 LIBDEM
17 Norwich South 309 LIBDEM
18 Edinburgh South 315 LAB
19 Stockton South 332 CON
20 Lancaster and Fleetwood 333 CON
21 Bradford East 364 LIBDEM
22 Broxtowe 390 CON
23 Truro and Falmouth 434 CON
24 Swansea West 505 LAB
25 Newton Abbot 521 CON
26 Wirral South 531 LAB
27 Amber Valley 538 CON
28 Chesterfield 550 LAB
29 Derby North 613 LAB
30 Hull North 643 LAB
31 Dudley North 649 LAB
32 Wolverhampton South West 691 CON
33 Great Grimsby 715 LAB
34 Waveney 767 CON
35 Wells 799 LIBDEM
36 Carlisle 852 CON
37 Morecambe and Lunesdale 868 CON
38 Rochdale 891 LAB
39 Telford 979 LAB
40 Weaver Vale 990 CON
41 Walsall North 992 LAB
42 Harrogate and Knaresborough 1041 CON
43 Lincoln 1056 CON
44 Morley and Outwood 1099 LAB-COOP
45 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 1150 CON
46 Montgomeryshire 1183 CON
47 Antrim South 1184 DUP
48 Brighton Pavilion 1254 GRN
49 Birmingham Edgbaston 1272 LAB
50 Stroud 1299 CON

Top 50 CONSERVATIVE Marginal Seats to Defend

Order Seat Total Of CalcMajority C Majority%
1 Warwickshire North 52 0.11
2 Camborne and Redruth 68 0.16
3 Thurrock 92 0.2
4 Hendon 107 0.23
5 Oxford West and Abingdon 175 0.31
6 Cardiff North 195 0.41
7 Sherwood 215 0.44
8 Stockton South 332 0.66
9 Lancaster and Fleetwood 333 0.78
10 Broxtowe 390 0.74
11 Truro and Falmouth 434 0.89
12 Newton Abbot 521 1.08
13 Amber Valley 538 1.17
14 Wolverhampton South West 691 1.72
15 Waveney 767 1.5
16 Carlisle 852 2.02
17 Morecambe and Lunesdale 868 1.99
18 Weaver Vale 990 2.25
19 Harrogate and Knaresborough 1041 1.96
20 Lincoln 1056 2.31
21 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 1150 2.62
22 Montgomeryshire 1183 3.5
23 Stroud 1299 2.24
24 Brighton Kemptown 1328 3.11
25 Bedford 1353 3
26 Watford 1424 2.58
27 Dewsbury 1528 2.83
28 Warrington South 1553 2.83
29 Pudsey 1659 3.38
30 Enfield North 1694 3.81
31 Hove 1868 3.75
32 Corby 1893 3.49
33 Northampton North 1937 4.81
34 Brentford and Isleworth 1957 3.64
35 Hastings and Rye 1993 4
36 Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2023 4.6
37 Nuneaton 2067 4.63
38 Ipswich 2079 4.43
39 Blackpool North and Cleveleys 2151 5.3
40 Aberconwy 2181 11.34
41 Bury North 2244 4.99
42 St Albans 2304 4.36
43 Gloucester 2421 4.77
44 Wirral West 2437 6.19
45 Kingswood 2443 5.1
46 Hereford and Herefordshire South 2482 5.13
47 Erewash 2501 5.25
48 Chester, City of 2583 5.52
49 Wyre Forest 2642 5.19
50 Weston-Super-Mare 2689 5.1

Top 50 LABOUR Marginal Seats to Defend

Order Seat Total Of CalcMajority Lab Majority%
1 Hampstead and Kilburn 42 0.08
2 Bolton West 90 0.19
3 Oldham East and Saddleworth 102 0.23
4 Sheffield Central 166 0.4
5 Southampton Itchen 191 0.43
6 Ashfield 193 0.4
7 Edinburgh South 315 0.72
8 Swansea West 505 1.42
9 Wirral South 531 1.33
10 Chesterfield 550 1.2
11 Derby North 613 1.36
12 Hull North 643 1.93
13 Dudley North 649 1.68
14 Great Grimsby 715 2.17
15 Rochdale 891 1.94
16 Telford 979 2.37
17 Walsall North 992 2.74
18 Birmingham Edgbaston 1272 3.06
19 Halifax 1472 3.38
20 Newcastle-under-Lyme 1551 3.59
21 Plymouth Moor View 1586 3.82
22 Wakefield 1613 3.63
23 Newport East 1650 4.79
24 Eltham 1662 3.96
25 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East 1678 3.63
26 Edinburgh North and Leith 1724 3.64
27 Walsall South 1754 4.29
28 Nottingham South 1770 4.34
29 Blackpool South 1851 5.26
30 Gedling 1860 3.86
31 Westminster North 2126 5.37
32 Bridgend 2262 5.9
33 Delyn 2271 6.14
34 Southampton Test 2413 5.46
35 Derbyshire North East 2446 5.2
36 Ynys Mon 2459 7.14
37 Wolverhampton North East 2484 7.12
38 Vale of Clwyd 2509 7.06
39 Tooting 2523 4.98
40 Scunthorpe 2548 6.88
41 Chorley 2593 5.21
42 Dagenham and Rainham 2632 5.95
43 Gower 2684 6.44
44 Exeter 2722 5.21
45 Stalybridge and Hyde 2743 6.71
46 Birmingham Northfield 2781 6.65
47 Pontypridd 2783 7.59
48 Clwyd South 2833 8.17
49 Alyn and Deeside 2918 7.31
50 Penistone and Stocksbridge 3047 6.55

Top 50 LIBDEM Seats to Defend

Seat Total Of CalcMajority LD Majority %
1 Solihull 176 0.32
2 Dorset Mid and Poole North 267 0.57
3 Norwich South 309 0.65
4 Bradford East 364 0.9
5 Wells 799 1.43
6 St Austell and Newquay 1313 2.78
7 Brent Central 1346 2.97
8 Sutton and Cheam 1606 3.31
9 St Ives 1717 3.74
10 Burnley 1816 4.34
11 Somerton and Frome 1818 3
12 Manchester Withington 1896 4.21
13 Dunbartonshire East 2182 4.55
14 Chippenham 2473 4.72
15 Berwick-upon-Tweed 2691 7
16 Cornwall North 2979 6.36
17 Birmingham Yardley 3002 7.35
18 Cheadle 3271 6.23
19 Argyll and Bute 3431 7.59
20 Eastbourne 3435 6.59
21 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3683 8.15
22 Brecon and Radnorshire 3749 9.65
23 Edinburgh West 3804 8.19
24 Eastleigh 3863 7.2
25 Taunton Deane 3995 6.87
26 Torbay 4080 8.29
27 Cardiff Central 4577 12.66
28 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 4827 16.78
29 Cheltenham 4920 9.32
30 Portsmouth South 5199 12.6
31 Redcar 5216 12.43
32 Carshalton and Wallington 5262 11.46
33 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 5676 11.58
34 Devon North 5820 11.34
35 Southport 6025 13.77
36 Hazel Grove 6373 15.18
37 Gordon 6746 13.83
38 Cambridge 6793 13.55
39 Hornsey and Wood Green 6875 12.49
40 Colchester 6981 15.13
41 Thornbury and Yate 7118 14.76
42 Kingston and Surbiton 7561 13.24
43 Lewes 7648 15.27
44 Ceredigion 8325 21.76
45 Bermondsey and Old Southwark 8528 19.1
46 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 8763 18.61
47 Fife North East 9046 22.58
48 Leeds North West 9101 20.93
49 Orkney and Shetland 9928 51.32
50 Bristol West 11368 20.54