Sunday, 9 May 2010

Spain: post-race analysis

Bugger. After a good qualifying, the race was dire. In entertainment terms, it was rubbish until the last few laps when there were a few interesting bits (Hamilton getting yet another puncture, Vettel coming third despite having no brakes). Betting-wise, all bad. Annoying that, as forecast, a Red Bull had a reliability problem, but it was late enough in the race that Vettel got away with it.

Although it’s galling to miss out on an all-green weekend so narrowly, it is at least a reasonable sign that my thinking was on decent lines.

The title race remains very close. My early season view backing Massa looks more and more wrong (although he did seem to benefit from breaking his front wing). Button remains in a good position, (backed him at 14 or so, and tipped at 8).

Red Bull clearly have the fastest car, and Vettel is the best driver on the grid, yet neither team nor driver tops a table. For the Constructors, McLaren lead on 119, followed by Ferrari on 116 and Red Bull on 113. Button’s still top of the driver standings at 70, with Alonso on 67, Vettel on 60 and Webber on 53.

Hamilton’s at 7. He is in the running, but has been outraced by Button and suffered some bad luck. I think he’s too short. Vettel is 2.64. He should be favourite, but I think that’s too short, given his dire luck. Fastest car though. Alonso’s also too short on 3.85. The Ferrari just isn’t quick enough. Yes, he got second today, but that was because Hamilton’s car exploded and Vettel drove 6 laps without brakes. For me, Button and Webber are too long (9.6 and 10) respectively. I’ve already backed Button, so won’t again, but I may well put a little on Webber. He’s a competent but not spectacular driver, but the Red Bull is absolutely brilliant. He also has good (or just normal) luck, unlike team-mate Vettel who seems cursed (bit like Raikonnen at McLaren).

Next week, the sport goes to Monaco. The circuit is unique. Very, very narrow, shreds tyres like nowhere else and has almost no run off areas. Qualifying may see an upset, simply due to traffic obstructing frontrunners. For those who watch practice, the first two sessions are on Thursday, as usual for Monaco. Hopefully I’ll manage to tip winners in both qualifying and practice next time.

Morris Dancer


Nigel said...

Hamilton looks very good value for Monaco qualifying at 11/2: not an aero track, and one of his favorites.
(Unless, of course, the congestion turns it into a lottery.)

Had a small flutter.

Nigel said...

Laid the Hamilton bet at a small advantage this morning.

I want steeper odds if I'm going to be left at the mercy of the weather on a congested track like this.