Saturday, 8 May 2010

Spain: pre-race

Surprised but pleased the Webber tip came off. A nice start to the Spanish race weekend.

As expected, Red Bull locked out the front row of the grid, followed by Hamilton, Alonso, Button and Schumacher.

Apparently Spain tends towards processions, suggesting the race may be more like Bahrain than the other, far more exciting and unpredictable, races this season.

According to Wunderground there’s a 20% chance of trace amounts of rain, has rain showers in the afternoon and the BBC is forecasting light showers. So, a small amount of rain is possible but not likely.

Over the last few years 6, 8 and 9 cars respectively have failed to finish the Spanish Grand Prix. This race also has the 6 newbie team cars, including one with a fuel tank too small to allow it to finish the race. This is handy info both when considering a classified bet, and as something to factor into other bets. Barcelona is a car-breaker of a circuit.

So, that’s the picture. A processional, dry circuit that has a tendency to break cars. No refuelling removes that strategic aspect, but one or two do remain. The start will be crucial. This season we’ve seen Vettel pass Webber to go first and the rivalry betwixt the two Red Bull drivers must be fierce. Also, Hamilton is in third in the car with the fastest straight line speed. In addition, a restart due to a safety car could well occur. It seems that the start proper and possible restarts may present the best opportunities for drama and passing.

This makes Red Bull a difficult call. Their car is clearly faster than all others, but it did prove rather unreliable in the previous races, and Spain, as stated above, does have a habit of wrecking cars.

So, I’ve opted for some unusual markets I don’t often consider. I’ve laid both Vettel and Webber to be classified, at 1.19 and 1.21 respectively. Their cars are amongst the least reliable, and they’re too fast not to get podiums, so I went for the lower odds of classification.

I’ve also backed the appearance of a safety car at 2.24. The track’s narrow and with the odds on a fair number of cars not finishing due to accident or breakdown there’s a reasonable chance of a safety car. If you lay the Red Bulls with half the stake you back the safety car you’ll be green if any one bet comes off.

Let’s hope Webber and Vettel collide in the first few laps, necessitating a safety car.

Morris Dancer


Anonymous said...

Well I've gone for your tip on laying Vettel and Webber, it's shaping up to be a dry processional race so I'm hoping an engine or two will object to being run full distance in the dry.

Morris Dancer said...

Bad luck for us both, Anonymous. If Vettel's problem had happened a few laps earlier the team may well have pulled him in.

Anonymous said...

Yep, the odds were good value I think but in the end the RBs had so much speed that they could both afford to slack off without pushing the problems to failure.

The WDC still seems to be wide open.

Morris Dancer said...

Yeah, Monaco's up next in a week. Could be fun. Bit miffed no bet paid off, but (depending on stakes) should be ahead for the weekend.

Nigel said...

Should have been satisfied with your qualifying winnings. When I saw a decent weather forecast, I decided not to bet on anything.

Crushing for Hamilton to get that puncture, after probably the best drive (and certainly the best move) of the race.

Morris Dancer said...

In hindsight, yes, but my bets were reasonable. Vettel did suffer a technical failure, and earlier in the race it would have definitely meant he wouldn't've been classified, and may've necessitated a safety car.

Aye, 'twas rough on Hamilton.