Sunday, 13 September 2009

Post-Monza race analysis and title forecasts

That was an exciting race both in itself and regarding the quartet of tips made in my prior article (and a failed 7/1 tip for Raikonnen to lead the first lap on the main site).

From a betting perspective the 7/1 for Barrichello to win came off, as did the 2.3 podium tips for both Brawn chaps. On the downside, the Button race win at 7/1 failed, as did the Raikonnen tip mentioned above. Assuming no laying and equal stakes on the quintet of tips I think that’s a total profit of 192%. Personally I advocate in-race laying as F1 is quite prone to unforeseen game-changing events (weather, safety car, driver error, being rammed off the road, car breakdown, spinning on the last lap and so on).

Drivers of note: Kovalainen lived up to my description of him as a perennial under-achiever. With a heavy fuel load, KERS and starting third he would’ve been the favourite if he could actually have consistent pace during a race. McLaren should’ve axed him last season.

Liuzzi drove phenomenally well to qualify 7th and was doing very nicely until he spun off. Most impressed with him.

Raikonnen continues to drive well and benefited from Hamilton’s mistake on the final lap for a quartet of consecutive podium finishes.

So, the title races are half as interesting as they were this time yesterday. Vettel scraped a solitary point and Webber’s incident with Kubica has meant the Red Bull drivers have almost no chance of acquiring the Drivers’ title which seems to be an in-house fight between Barrichello and Button.

Similarly, the Constructors’ is all but over, and if the Brawns keep this pace up they’ll secure it shortly. Red Bull could still catch them but I can’t see it happening.

Barrichello cut Button’s lead by a mere 2 points, so it now stands at 14 with just 4 races left. At the time of writing Button’s 1.31 and Barrichello stands at 4.7. The result today was unusual because it gives both drivers reasons to feel confident. Button finally had a good race, getting the podium entirely on merit, and Barrichello had another win and beat his rival for the title which will be a nice psychological boost.

I think Button will win it. Barrichello drove well today and has done for a number of races, but the Brawn is extremely reliable, and although Barrichello is out-driving Button now he isn’t doing so well enough to get 4 points extra every race, particularly given the competitive nature of the McLarens and Ferraris. I think Button’s lead is too big to be eroded just by being beaten on the track by Barrichello. I wouldn’t advocate betting on that market at this stage (I laid Barrichello slightly at 4.8 post-race).

So, we have 4 races left, including the new circuit of Abu Dhabi and I think Suzuka is going to go from day to night, which could prove interesting.

Morris Dancer

PS SCD article may be forthcoming during the week.


CJ-A said...

I have a Raikkonen block it seems. I constantly ignore him for some reason.

From today's race it's clearly a Brawn championship and it probably needs a Button DNF to make it interesting for Barrichello. Constructors title is already won so it's all down to the drivers.

I'm feeling sorry for Force India as they seem to get stuck behind a KERS car effectively ruining the race, not sure Suitil would have had enough to win it today but Button might have been in danger for that second place. The question is will Force India continue to be at the front in what is a more technical circuit, I'm not sure on that one.

Another factor might be Fisichella, his first performance in a strange car didn't go that badly today so he should be nearer the front in the next race. Red Bull should also be there or there abouts.

The clear answer is, don't disagree with Morris Dancer especially on Raikkonen.

Morris Dancer said...

Fisi's slightly lacklustre performance may be down to the fact that he's not only in a new car, but one with KERS which might take longer getting used to.

Driver that impressed me the most was Liuzzi. Yes, he went off, but until then he performed very well indeed. Red Bull should do better in the remaining races but not enough to win any titles, and if they do win races that'll only help Button.

Regarding Raikonnen: it's understandable to naturally ignore him given his early performances (partly due to the car) were not good, and at a number of places he was far behind Massa. I suppose that's the trick to betting generally: spot the market's blind spot and exploit it.