It is a common place among the politically aware that the Conservatives need a big lead in the polls to get a majority.
It is also well known that Lord Ashcroft & Eric Pickles see their job as targeting the marginals their party needs. In short, they want valuable votes. A million extra votes in Tory safe seats has no value....
Sometimes, expressing known facts in a different way brings them into focus.
What Ashcoft and Pickles have been doing is mounting a scientific, long running and well funded attack on UNS. Their plan is for a non-uniform national swing.
While all this has been mentioned before (particularly on PB), it is worth repeating.
The evidence seems to be that they are having an effect. The marginals polls that we have seen, the regional breakdowns of the main polls, the cancelling of the election-that-never-was and the obsession with Ashcroft among the vulnerable Labour MPs all point in this direction.