Apologies for the lateness of this article, due to the timezone difference qualifying was delayed a couple of hours and I’ve only just seen the pre-race weights.
Hamilton’s heavy fuel load (for the top 10) and very good pace makes him the clear frontrunner for the win. From 11-13 Nakajima, Button and Raikonnen are all heavy (680kg) and could end up in a good position should there be a safety car.
It’s also interesting that 3rd placed chap Rosberg is heavier than either Red Bull driver (Vettel is 2nd, Webber 4th).
So, is there any value, and if so, where is it?
Perusing Betfair, I think it’s worth laying both Red Bulls for podiums, presently at about 2 for Vettel and 2.2 for Webber. I’d take the former at 2.5 or under, and the latter at 3 or under.
According to the excellent Mole blog (link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/f1mole/2009/09/bbc-sports-fueladjusted-singap.html) Vettel (2nd) is on the dirty side of the track (and therefore 4th-placed Webber must be also). Vettel especially is low on fuel and may get overtaken by Rosberg and Alonso (3rd and 5th respectively, though it’s worth noting the Renault does not have KERS at this circuit). Even if he isn’t he’ll have to pit relatively early.
I don’t think Raikonnen will do very well, although he has KERS which will prove useful off the start and in the likely event of a safety car the Ferrari has performed badly all weekend.
Similarly, Barrichello had some pace but his fuel load is very low for 10th place, and Button has good fuel, but underperformed in qualifying and will probably be overtaken by Raikonnen off the start.
Hamilton’s rightly heavy favourite, but given the chances of a safety car and the fact that on a street circuit most errors prove race-ending I’m unsure of any value in the winner’s market.
However, Mr Scott P. has highlighted the possible value of Rosberg to win, (presently 14.5). I concur with Scott’s view that Rosberg is faster than Vettel here (and would’ve won the last Singapore race if Alonso had been disqualified). Looking it over, I’m inclined to agree it’s worth a punt.
The Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka is in one week’s time, not the usual two.