Saturday, 19 September 2009

The Welsh Battleground : Gwynedd

Having seen recent posts on the battleground seats in Scotland, it only seems fair that the other major nation part of Great Britain gets a mention, namely Wales, but unlike the Scottish review this review will be done by former county area. This part will deal with the seats that make up Gwynedd

Ynys Môn
2005 Result: Lab 35% Plaid 31% Ind 15% Con 11% Lib Dem 7% Others 2%
Ynys Môn (which literally translates as the Island of Mona) is the Welsh name given to the island of Anglesey (which can boast as being one of only a few constituencies in the whole of Britain to have been won by every party (Conservative, Labour, Liberal and Plaid Cymru) at some stage during it's life. Ynys Môn is Plaid Cymru's third target seat in Wales which might make people think it will be an easy gain (however, it was the number 1 target seat in 2005 and they managed to miss it by 4%!)

Notional 2005 Result: Lab 34% Plaid 32% Con 16% Lib Dem 16% Others 2%
Arfon comes back into the parliamentary fray after an absence of nearly a century but anyone looking at the geography of the seat would recognise it instantly. This is Plaid's second target seat (having been carved out of the Caernarfon constituency) and with that history should be an easy Plaid gain (but as we have seen nothing is easy for Plaid)

Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Notional 2005 Result: Plaid 51% Lab 22% Con 14% Lib Dem 11% Others 2%
To say that this constituency is a mouthful is an understatement. Not only does it rank up there with Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) as one of the more difficult constituencies to actually say, but it's been made up of bits of Caernarfon, Meirionnydd Nant Conwy and Clwyd West constituencies. Despite all this, the seat's politics has not changed too much and Elfyn Llwyd (Plaid's leader in Westminster) is almost certain to retain his seat and role

Notional 2005 Result: Lab 33% Con 29% Lib Dem 19% Plaid 14% Others 5%
ABER at the front of a word in Welsh means estuary, and the Aberconwy seat not only has the estuary of the Conwy (at Llandudno) in it's boundaries but also the whole course of the River Conwy, and just like the river, the former Conwy constituency (which this seat replaces) has meandered between Conservative and Labour (and in the Assembly elections, Plaid) and is one of the seats that the Conservatives need to gain in order to deny Labour a fourth election win

Next Time: Dyfed, named after a Welsh prince, and although only having five seats, those seats have had some great political names representing them in the past.


Anonymous said...

Surely if Plaid are in good shape Ynys Mon has got to be won.

The question is, how good shape are they in?


Marcia said...

Plaid now seem to be in a better financial shape than in 2005 and will have more money to spend in their target seats.

Penderyn said...

The one thing to consider with the Gwynedd seats is how accurate or not the notional results from 2005 are. Creating notional results is always an imprecise science, particularly with little party competition in local government. Its fairly clear from bookies and people from Aberconwy that Labour have given up and the battle will be between the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. The bookies have the Conservatives as favourties but Plaid have a very strong local candidate in Phil Edwards.

BrianSJ said...

How is the schooling issue now?