Easterross- Scottish Predictions

Following on from the Glasgow North East by-election and the large majority Labour achieved over the SNP, I thought revising earlier predictions might be the order of the day.

In the table below I list all seats fought in 2005, the winner (by-elections since shown as *) and runner-up, winner at Holyrood in 2007 (where possible and if 2 seats both winners) and the Easterross 1^st and 2^nd choice predictions for the General Election.

Constituency Name	2005 Winner	2005 Runner Up	Holyrood 2007	2010 Predicted 1st choice	2010 Predicted 2nd choice
Orkney and Shetland	SLD Hold	Lab	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Western Isles	SNP Hold	Lab	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SLD Hold	Lab	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Ross, Skye and Lochaber	SLD Hold	Lab	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Inverness, Nairn etc	SLD Gain	Lab	SNP Hold	SLD Hold	SNP Gain
Argyll	SLD Hold	Con	SNP Gain	Con Gain	SNP Gain
Moray	SNP Hold	Lab	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Gordon	SLD Hold	Lab	SNP Gain	SLD Hold	SNP Gain
Banff and Buchan	SNP Hold	Con	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	Con Gain
Aberdeen North	Lab Hold	SLD	SNP & Lab Holds	Lab Hold	SNP Gain
Aberdeen South	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab/ SLD Hold	Lab Hold	Con Gain
Angus	SNP Hold	Con	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	Con Gain
Dundee East	SNP Hold	Lab	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Dundee West	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Gain	SNP Gain	SNP Gain
Dunfermline and W Fife *	Lab Hold *	SLD	SLD Gain	Lab Hold *	SLD Gain *
Fife North-East	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Perth and N Perthshire	SNP Hold	Con	SNP Hold	SNP Hold	Con Gain
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glenrothes *	Lab Hold *	SNP	SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Hold	SNP Gain	Lab Hold
Stirling	Lab Hold	Con	SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Con Gain
Airdrie and Shotts	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Coatbridge, Chryston etc	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Cumbernauld etc	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
East Kilbride etc	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Falkirk	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Gain/ Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Motherwell and Wishaw	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Lanark and Hamilton East	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Lab Hold	SNP	SNP Gain	SNP Gain	Lab Hold
Glasgow Central	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold/ SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glasgow East *	Lab Hold *	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold *	SNP Gain *
Glasgow North	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	SNP Gain
Glasgow North- East *	Speak Hold *	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Gain *	Lab Gain *
Glasgow North- West	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glasgow South	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Glasgow South- West	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Dunbartonshire East	SLD Gain	Lab	Lab Gain	Lab Gain	SLD Hold
Dunbartonshire West	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Renfrewshire East	Lab Hold	Con	Lab Hold	Con Gain	Lab Hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Inverclyde	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ayrshire N & Arran	Lab Hold	Con	Lab Hold/ SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ayrshire Central	Lab Hold	Con	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	Lab Hold	Con	Lab & Con Holds	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Dumfries & Galloway	Lab Gain	Con	Lab & Con Holds	Con Gain	Con Gain
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc	Con Gain	Lab	Lab Hold	Con Hold	Con Hold
Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold/ Con Gain	Con Gain	SLD Hold
East Lothian	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Edinburgh East	Lab Hold	SLD	SNP Gain/ Lab Hold	Lab Hold	SNP Gain
Edinburgh North & Leith	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Con Gain
Edinburgh South	Lab Hold	SLD	SLD Hold	Con Gain	SLD Gain
Edinburgh South- West	Lab Hold	Con	Con Hold	Con Gain	Lab Hold
Edinburgh West	SLD Hold	Con	SLD Hold	SLD Hold	SLD Hold
Linlithgow & East Falkirk	Lab Hold	SNP	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Livingston *	Lab Hold *	SNP	SNP Gain	Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Midlothian	Lab Hold	SLD	Lab Hold	Lab Hold	Lab Hold

Summarising the above, in my first set of likely outcomes we would see Labour 35, Conservative 7, Scottish Liberal Democrat 8 and SNP 9, very much in line with the recent Baxter model summary where polls are Labour 29, SNP 27, Conservative 20 and Scottish Liberal Democrat 15.

In my second set of outcomes, those in which I suggest an alternative winner if not the same party twice, we would see Labour 30, Conservative 8, Scottish Liberal Democrat 9 and SNP 12.