Turkey: pre-race

A combination of good fortune (Vettel cocking up his last lap) and good sense paid off, with Webber getting yet another pole position. [For those laying, I got 1.5 matched for Webber, and 2.5 for my silly Hamilton bet which meant I finished all square for Hamilton and ahead overall].

Turkey typically sees the pole sitter getting the win, with the notable exception of last year. It will be interesting to see if the McLarens can pass the Red Bulls on the straights during the race.

Also worth mentioning that Alonso is continuing his mission to lose his reputation for consistent excellence by failing to reach Q3 and starting 12th. After the Monaco practice crash and Chinese false start the grumpy Spaniard isn’t looking quite as good as he ought to be.

Forecast for tomorrow is sunny, so no rainy interludes. However, it does raise an interesting point. During either practice or qualifying, I forget which, the commentators suggested that Red Bull’s problems with reliability tend to come up in hotter weather. Turkey’s warm but not crazily hot, and we’ve already seen problems with both cars. A sunny day may exacerbate the Red Bull’s reliability issues, and is something to keep an eye out for.

The even side of the track (ie the side cars starting 2nd, 4th, 6th etc line up on) is dirtier than the odd side. Hard to say how significant that will prove, but may give a slight edge to the odd-numbered cars.

So, all that considered, I’m backing Button at 2.7 for a podium. There are a number of ways this could occur, through passing a Red Bull on a straight, Red Bull exploding or a Red Bull driver making an error. Button never challenged for pole, but he has also made fewer mistakes than his title rivals over the course of the weekend.

I also looked at the winner’s market, but did not see any value. Webber’s on a roll, he did well at Turkey last time and after Vettel’s shenanigans off the line earlier this season he shouldn’t be caught napping.

So, a single tip to back Button for a podium at 2.7. [Unlike a pole position or winner type bet I don’t lay this kind of bet, unless at veeeery low odds].

Morris Dancer