Friday, 26 October 2012

India: pre-qualifying

The tyres for this weekend are the hard and soft.

The choice of soft for the option is interesting given that in the pre-weekend quotes Alguersuari, currently Pirelli's test driver, stated that the circuit was very harsh on tyres:

This might lead to tyre management becoming more important. In Korea, Red Bull seemed to suffer more than Ferrari (although it's hard to be certain whether that was due to Vettel pushing too hard earlier).

The first practice session, rather tediously, had Vettel fastest, followed by Button, Alonso, Hamilton and Webber. Rosberg, Massa and Schumacher were next, with Ricciardo and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10.

The second session again saw Vettel top the timesheets with Webber a tenth behind and Alonso more than half a second off the Wunderkind. Rosberg, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Button, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Senna round out the top 10.

I've decided to post this article now because I'm not sure if I'll wake up in time to listen to P3 (6.30am) or be awake enough to offer a tip pre-qualifying (it starts at 9.30am). If I subsequently offer a tip it'll be in the comments, after P3 and before qualifying begins.

At this stage it's looking ominously repetitive. Vettel's rightly short odds favourite for pole, although Alonso seems quite competitive and might end up in the top 3 on the grid. Between the Spaniard and the McLarens it seems quite close.

Mercedes seem a little stronger than they have recently, and Raikkonen's going to have his hands full holding onto third in the title race. On the other hand, both he and his car are super reliable.

The India circuit isn't used very much during the year, so it's quite dusty and prone to substantial improvement over the course of a race weekend. Perhaps even more than usual the third practice session, all else being equal, should be the best indicator of how qualifying will go.

Morris Dancer


Anonymous said...

Now here's a funny thing - Webber is best-priced at a skinny 0.75/1 to achieve a podium finish (where the bookies reckon there are only 3 cars in contention,'s all over bar the shouting).
Yet, yet, despite finishing barely more than 1/10th second behind his team mate in P2, he is a whopping great 13.5 with Betfair (11.9/1 net in real money) to win this weekend's Indian GP.
In my unrelenting search for value, I'll have a piece of that thank you very much, seeking to lay this bet at 5.5 in running, thereby leaving me with a free 6.6/1 (net) bet should it be matched.
High time I had a winner, leaving aside my spread bet of course, which remains open for now.

Peter from Putney

Morris Dancer said...

I've laid (with a few pounds only) Massa to reach Q3 at 1.5. I think it's roughly evens as to whether he will or not, based on P3, but there was only £8 (so a stake of £4) available, and it's not, therefore a tip.

I don't know what to make of your tip. It does seem like stonking value given Red Bull predominance. Hmm. Maybe I'll put some on. That said, Webber just doesn't feel like a winner, having been eclipsed, as have all othes, by Vettel in recent times.

Anonymous said...

Despite qualifying on the front row, Webber remains priced at 12 (10.4/1 net) with Betfair to win the race.

The simple truth is that bookies and punters alike simply don't fancy him - on a detached purely statistical basis he always looks cheap in the betting markets, totally dominated by his team mate, as has been the case over the last 3 seasons.

There's no way by bet on him is ever going to get matched while ever Vettel remains on the race track and should he fail to finish for whatever reason, then I would probably have sold my bet on Webber too cheaply.

Poor strategy on my part, I should simply have stayed with the straight win at 11.9/1 net, hoping against hope that once in a while such a bet might actually deliver.

Peter from Putney

Morris Dancer said...

Ha, just as well there wasn't more available on Massa.

Webber's still 9.2 on Betfair for the win. Surprisingly long. In Monaco last year Button was 8 from second.

Markets haven't really got going. I think the win and podium markets might be tricky, so I might pay more attention to top 6 and points. Article will probably be up in a few hours, depending how the market goes.

Morris Dancer said...

Mr. Putney, he was just 0.04s behind Vettel. In addition, if Vettel has tyre issues as per Korea it might yet prove green.