Korea: post-race analysis

Well, that was a bad race from a betting perspective. Alonso could've been anywhere from about second to fifth after the first few corners, so third was not too bad, but after that he simply lacked the pace to compete with the Red Bulls. Although Red Bull was clearly top dog the margin if victory was smaller than the ultra-dominant race in Japan.

So, the bet failed due to a misjudgement on my part. Slightly annoyingly, 2/3 of things I considered (the 8 Webber pole bet, a Safety car appearance and laying Webber to lead lap 1) did come off, but that's also just a case of misjudgement on my part.

Not sure how the green line turned out, it depends on the stake and whether it was matched to lay Webber at 3.5 for the win (might've been matched late on when Vettel's engineer was very worried about his tyres going). The Button to be top 6 tip obviously didn't come off, but I think it stood a strong chance of having doing so were it not for sheer bad luck.

At the sharp end, save for the final few laps and the start, it was quite dull. Vettel nabbed the start (I should've listened to myself from a year ago and laid the pole-sitter to lead lap 1) and Alonso rose to third, with Webber in second. The three men held those positions essentially throughout the race (save for pit stops mixing the order briefly).

However, there was more excitement further down the order.

Button and Rosberg were both struck by Kobayashi and had to retire, as the Japanese driver himself later did. This won't help his prospects of a drive next year.

Hamilton seemed to suffer some sort of mechanical issue and a bad set of tyres, meaning he pitted thrice, once more than most others. Tragedy became farce late on when his car acquired an astroturf scarf, and he just about held off Perez to claim the final point on offer.

Massa was very racy today. In fact, he was often the fastest man on the track and could've passed Alonso, were he not the clear number two driver. In retrospect, Ferrari made a mistake by not letting him past as I believe he would've stood a strong chance of passing Webber and Vettel late on. The German's engineer was increasing stressed about high tyre wear and the gap from him to Webber fell by about 4s in the last couple of laps as he was forced to take it easy. A Massa win would've cut Alonso's points haul by 3, but Vettel's by 7. The Brazilian really does seem to have rediscovered his form lately. This could help Alonso, if his team mate can either act as a rear gunner or by jumping ahead of his rivals and robbing them of victories/podium places.

There was a nice, and prolonged, Di Resta/Schumacher duel for honour only, which the Scot won. Toro Rosso had a cracking race, with a double points finish in 8th and 9th.

Raikkonen was solid but unspectacular in 5th, Hulkenberg had another strong finish in 6th and Grosjean, who diligently stayed out of trouble on lap 1, got 7th.

Williams were notably poor in 14th and 15th. Senna lacked speed and Maldonado's attempt at a one-stop really didn't work.

So, it was a little bit boring at the sharp end, and unprofitable. Mr. Putney's Button tip was shot by bad luck and my own Alonso tip was just plain wrong.

It's two weeks to India, do I might do a post considering recent bets and the state of play. I've had a bad run of late (the Japanese Alonso tip was ruined by bad luck, but otherwise I've just been misjudging things) and it might help.

At the moment Red Bull are clearly top dog. Second is harder to assess. Ferrari is the obvious answer after today but Hamilton had some sort of car issue and Button was taken out early on, so it might not be that clear-cut. Lotus, Mercedes and Sauber seem to have fallen back a little.

After the race today the drivers' title looks like this:

Vettel 215

Alonso 209

Raikkonen 167

Hamilton 153

Webber 152

Still very much a race between a prancing horse and a red bull. Alonso needs just a bit more raw pace, otherwise the title will slip from his grasp before Interlagos (the final race).

In the battle for the third spot (I've backed Raikkonen for that) this was a good race, and Raikkonen's reliability (only chap to finish all races this year to date) and Webber/Hamilton taking points off of each other may help the Finn keep the third spot.

The Constructors' is as follows:

Red Bull 367

Ferrari 290

McLaren 284

McLaren have absolutely blown the Constructors. They had a massive speed advantage for several races but coupled it with shoddy reliability, and early in the season almost comedic pit stops cost them a slew of points. I was expecting to write "Ferrari could yet overhaul them…" but it turns out they have already. They're still in contention for second, but the win is effectively Red Bull's already.

So, race bets didn't go well (partly contingent on Mr. Putney's hedge getting matched and what stake he used). I must admit I finish the weekend slightly ahead due to getting a few pounds on Webber at 8 for pole (most untipped bets are due to lack of money available or them being early, or both in this case, and I typically make a loss).

In terms of title bets, I'm all-green whatever happens with the drivers', laying Red Bull for the Constructors' now looks moronic and I'm somewhat hopeful Raikkonen can retain third position.

Not sure if I'll offer a pre-qualifying tip for India, as P3 ends at 7.30am.

Morris Dancer