There's no pre-qualifying tip as P3 happens at an ungodly
hour and I'm not getting up at 3am.
However, there is a lot to talk about given the events of a
week or so ago in the drivers' market.
Lewis Hamilton, as predicted by a bespectacled and silly
Irishman, has left McLaren for Mercedes. This is a move that is definitely
courageous and could prove very clever, or very foolish. In the latter half of
last year when Button was outperforming him it emerged that he had gotten a
stronger grip of the garage and was fully engaged/integrated in the team (many
thought when Button joined he was effectively joining Team Hamilton). Since
then Hamilton has not appeared too happy, and is also pissed off, reportedly
over issues including a lack of trophies (the team keeps the real ones he wins
and he gets only replicas) and money (specifically the lack of freedom a
McLaren driver has regarding lucrative sponsorship deals).
At the time of writing the story is that he's replacing
Schumacher and is guaranteed number one status at Mercedes. No wonder Rosberg
wanted Schumacher to stay. The two seem to have gotten along rather well and
were actually fairly evenly matched (Schumacher's poor score this year is due
to poor reliability of the car rather than himself). In 2014 the regulations
will be changed massively, especially regarding engines, and this could be a
turning point for Mercedes. Hamilton
knows that Ross Brawn engineered Ferrari's period of ultra-boring dominance in
the early 2000s and he wants more titles.
Meanwhile McLaren have done the smart thing, in my view, and
hired Perez. The Mexican is not only seriously fast and excellent at tyre
management, he also brings a boatload of sponsorship cash. Di Resta especially
must be gutted as, for a while, he seemed likely to eventually go to McLaren
but Perez's performances this year have been outstanding on a number of
occasions. I think this is the right call for McLaren.
Perez is the big winner, but the biggest loser is Rosberg.
The German is bloody unlucky. He served an apprenticeship with Williams before
having a shot with Mercedes, and got his first win this year, only to discover
that for the next three years (like Hamilton he has, I think, a deal of that
length) he's going to be the second driver of the team.
And just when it seemed all the pre-Suzuka driver market
business was finished, Schumacher has announced his retirement. His comeback
never quite matched expectations. It took him most of the first season to get
up to speed, and the Mercedes was never (excepting a short period this year)
competitive at the sharp end. He was dreadfully unlucky that his 5 place grid
penalty stripped him of pole at Monaco,
which he could have won, and in China,
which his team mate won and where he could've stood on the podium, the team
failed to attach a wheel properly in the pits.
Today, I think he's a better driver than Rosberg, but all
good (and controversial) things must come to an end. Even as a childhood
Schumacher fan I found the first half of this millennium dull because he won by
so much, but he's undoubtedly one of the all-time greats of the sport. Vettel,
Alonso, Hamilton and others will find it hard to match him because his sporting
dominance was matched by having the very best car and solid reliability,
coupled with fewer competitive title contenders than we have today.
I was tempted by the 13 with Ladbrokes for Perez to win the
title in 2013. My reasoning is thus:
Car matters more than driver
McLaren will be in the top 2-3 and might be the best
His competition would be Alonso, Button, Vettel and maybe
Raikkonen. However, I think his odds may be longer with Betfair (20-30 would be
intriguing) and there's still the question mark over whether he can cut it at
the very sharp end.
Although I wasn't planning to put any more on Raikkonen to
be top 3, his odds drifting to 4.2 tempted me and I've put a little extra on.
Betfair is also now offering a cash out option for the title market, but I
decided not to accept it. However, after listening to P1 and P2 I'm now
regretting this somewhat. Oh well.
The Japanese tyre compounds are hard and soft, a combination
last used at Silverstone.
Button takes a 5 place grid penalty for a change of gearbox
(same issue as Hamilton). Hamilton
gets no penalty as he failed to finish the last race.
P1 saw McLaren dominance as Button topped the scoreboard,
followed by his soon-to-be-ex team mate Hamilton. Webber, Rosberg and
Schumacher were next, and were followed by Kobayashi, Massa,
Di Resta, Hulkenberg and Maldonado.
P2 had Webber fastest with Hamilton
second again, and Vettel third. Hulkenberg, Alonso and Grosjean came next, with
Button, Senna, Massa and Schumacher
rounding out the top 10.
After the first two practice sessions it appears that McLaren
and Red Bull will again tussle for pole and probably the win. Ferrari need to
stop the rot, because 29 points is by no means an insurmountable lead for
Alonso, and McLaren need to have an MOT-worthy car.
Force India
seem fairly competitive and Williams may do well, but Lotus seem to be nowhere.
I don't think the Narnia DRS Device has actually made an appearance (perhaps if
they cut their old rear wing in half on a stone table it would appear).
Setup will be critical because, according to the BBC's Gary Anderson,
there's a Spa-like dilemma regarding downforce. In short, lots of lovely
downforce means that you'll be faster in the twisty bits and this will be,
overall, quicker. However, it also means that you'll work the tyres harder and
you'll be vulnerable in the race to being passed on the straights.
The weather forecast for both tomorrow and Sunday is for
Suzuka to be entirely dry.
Given Ferrari was behind in Singapore
and seem to be behind in Suzuka I've laid (a little) Alonso for the title at
1.56. I think his odds now should be a bit longer, and Vettel's rather shorter.
Qualifying is from 6am
to 7am tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
5 comments:
Not betting on qualifying - although both Button and Webber both have a decent chance of pole on this track (the Betfair market is settled before penalties are applied), and I'm almost tempted to have a long odds punt.
I don't give either much chance in the race, though. Button (obviously) because of the penalty and Webber since Red Bull look a little marginal on the tyres for a two stop, and he's almost always tougher on the tyres than Vettel.
I'm therefore getting a full position on Hamilton at 3.35 for the win, and a 40% position on Vettel at 4.2 as insurance, ahead of quali.
This may look really silly tomorrow, but what the hey.
Webber's been really off the boil lately. The rest of the top 6 have all made something like 50-70 points in the last X races, and he's made far fewer. I think he's practically out of it.
Indeed - I just think the odds for the race are more attractive than those for quali.
Webber could conceivably sneak pole - and Button quite possibly. Not the win, I think.
Well that was a bit disappointing.
Betting before third practice is not something I will be repeating - it's fairly clear that the McLaren's don't have the pace to challenge Red Bull, and this would have been obvious had I stayed up until the early hours...
I was right about Webber having a chance at pole - without that lockup, he would probably have been faster than Vettel.
Glad I took out the Vettel insurance.
Your Alonso bet is now looking pretty smart.
I listened to P3 (incidentally, if Sam Bird ever becomes a commentator instead of Mercedes' test driver I think he'd make a bloody good job of it) and the latter half of qualifying (woke up a bit later than I'd intended). Very surprised the McLarens didn't do better, but I think Hamilton had the car to be far further up the grid.
I also think Legard was weirdly fixated on the 1.5s gap from Vettel to Hamilton, instead of the 0.2s to Webber and 0.4s to Button. Button was as far ahead of Kobayashi as Vettel was of Button.
Assuming Grosjean doesn't go crazy it'll be interesting to see how the Saubers do and whether or not Button can fight his way through the field. Hard to see past a Red Bull (and probably Vettel) victory, as their race pace and long-run pace were both excellent in practice. Ferrari had lots of blistering which may further hamstring Alonso.
It's early and I'm still sleepy, so the pre-race piece will be up in several hours. Not sure if I'll bother watching highlights or not first.
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