Well, I have mixed feelings about the qualifying result
given I was tempted to tip Webber at 8 for pole but there wasn't even enough
for me to put a full stake on. That's the way things go, and he got it because
Vettel cocked up a lap rather than having better outright speed. In
addition, I never would've tipped anyone but Vettel had I been up to tip based
on P3 where he topped the timesheet by over half a second.
Two green line tips have been offered in the previous
comments, both of which are eminently hedgeable (incidentally, I don't normally
include hedges on the green line because I don't want 4 lines, so if you want a
hedge to count as a tip please specify this).
As has become traditional, I slept in and missed the first
30 minutes of qualifying.
In Q1 Senna joined the pointless teams.
The second session, as usual, was rather more competitive,
with Button failing to make it out and starting 11th on the grid, next to his
future team mate Perez. Kobayashi is 13th, with Di Resta 14th and followed by
Maldonado and the two Toro Rossos.
Both Mercedes made it into Q3 but couldn't progress much
beyond that, finishing with Rosberg 9th and Schumacher 10th, and Hulkenberg
will be happy to get 8th. Raikkonen's new exhaust seemed to work for him, as he
got 5th, Massa will probably be
reasonably pleased with 6th and Grosjean starts 7th.
However, as always, it was the sharp end that was most
exciting. After the first run Vettel was ahead by a mile, with Alonso in third. After
the second and final run in Q3 Alonso had been pipped by Hamilton,
with the Briton 3rd and the Spaniard 4th. However, Webber managed to edge ahead
of Vettel, who cocked up his final lap and now starts off 2nd (and none too happy
was he, judging by a rather annoyed radio message to his engineer).
Picking a winner is not easy. Webber may get passed normally
or team orders may play a role (although the Aussie doesn't have a record of
liking or necessarily following them). In addition, both the McLaren and the
Ferrari look strong on long runs. So, any of the top four seem to have a pretty
solid chance.
Race strategy could well be split, with a 1 or 2 stop
(according to Gary Anderson) approach more or less the same in terms of overall
time. This may also mean that someone on a different strategy might appear to
have a better chance than they do, increasing, I think, the importance of
hedging bets.
Ferrari has less graining than the McLaren and may have
better race pace than the Red Bull. The Red Bull advantage over the other two
teams is in twisty sector 3 where overtaking is practically impossible. The
reverse is also true, with Ferrari and McLaren faster in sector 1, where
overtaking is eminently possible.
On balance, I've decided to back Alonso for the win at 7.4,
with a hedge set up at 2.5.
I've decided against laying Webber to lead lap 1 because the
odds (1.68 at the time of writing) are not good enough, given team orders
probably won't kick in at the start (too much risk of being passed by multiple
cars) and it's entirely possible squabbling behind will lead to him getting a
reasonable run. I also looked at a Safety Car appearance at 1.88, but there's
only been one dry race here before and I think Grosjean/Maldonado may be on
best behaviour.
Tricky decision, but I think my reasoning is sound. We'll
find out tomorrow.
The grid is perfectly poised for a great race, and has all
the major title contenders at the sharp end. Hopefully it'll be a cracker
(start time is 7am in the UK).
Morris Dancer
5 comments:
Interesting stat from F1fanatic:
:Last year none of the top six cars at the end of the first lap were in the same positions they’d occupied at the exit of turn one..."
That is a fascinating stat.
Another good one, courtesy of Sam Bird (Mercedes test driver), is that if Schumacher had finished all of the first 7 races in the position he either finished or was when he had a DNF he would've led the title race at that point.
So, Alonso first, Webber second, Raikkonen third, Hamilton fourth, Massa fifth and Vettel sixth would work nicely.
Thanks for the prompt to lay my bet on Webber - having backed him at 12/1, I feel I can afford to do so and I've set this at an undemanding price of 5/2, compared with his pre-race odds on Betfair of 4/1 net, which seem ridiculously high, suggesting that he has only a 20% chance of winning the race.
In addition, taking account of Nigel's comments on the previous thread regarding Jenson Buttons' possible strategic tyre advantage, I'm backing him for a Top 6 finish at 11/8 available from Blue Square and others. We saw in Japan last weekend how quickly he gained places at the very start of the race when he (and I) were very unlucky that he ultimately just failed to secure a podium finish.
This weekend I am being far less ambitious and given his own and his car's respective abilities, I'll be very disappointed should this bet not prove a winner.
Good luck to everyone else with their bets.
Peter from Putney.
That seems like a potentially good spot on Button. I'll make a note of that.
I share your slight bemusement at Webber's long odds. Whilst he may have to move over for Vettel (or just get passed) it certainly isn't guaranteed.
Oh, and what stake are you putting up at 3.5 against Webber?
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