Tuesday, 27 October 2009

Will the Lib Dems lose badly at the next election?

After much conversation on this topic, I have decided to do my research and write a blog post about it. This topic for all those wondering what I am talking about, is whether or not Nick Clegg’s party are going to lose badly at the next general election or not.

Below I have two poll results from October 2004 and November 2004 and if you compare them to the outcome result for the Lib Dems, you realise that the party is in trouble unless something magic happens soon.

Poll from October 2004 by YouGov:
Conservative 29%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 22%

Poll from November 2004 by YouGov:
Conservative 32%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 23%

The actual outcome for the Lib Dems in vote share relations was 22% of the vote, which brings forward an interesting argument. If 6-7 months prior to the 2005 general election, the poll results for the Lib Dems were the same as they actually got does that mean the party will only get the 18-19% at the election as this is what the party is currently getting in the polls in 2009?

Charles Kennedy in my view was an election winner for the Lib Dems, I know Nick Clegg can not achieve what Charles did and the next election will be proof of that. So media coverage didn’t help the Lib Dems, and I don’t believe it will, my view is that Charles was an election winner and the party has lost a massive asset.

From the argument put forward by the polls leading to the 2005 election, all I can predict is, it’s going to be very interesting.

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